Small wonder that for businessmen China is the golden frontier

Small wonder that, for businessmen, China is the golden frontier. Yet, despite some glimmerings of legal reform and nods in the direction of a freer press, it remains a totalitarian state that routinely tramples on human rights and bullies its neighbours. But if it is centralised, it is also fragmented, a land riddled with corruption, where local baronies thrive.Today, this contradictory, unwieldy place is approaching an awkward, perhaps traumatic, transition. This summer, the Chinese Communist party will hold its 16th Congress, at which the current leadership, under President Jiang Zemin, is expected to step down, at the very moment when a vibrant modern economy and a withered gerontocracy look more incompatible than ever.The jostling for power has long been under way. Signs that economic reform is losing impetus may betray a growing influence of conservatives.

Equally, the tough handling of the present crisis with the US may reflect the increasing clout of the army ­ or it may merely reflect the age-old temptation of the politician, when in doubt, to play the nationalist card But we simply do not know. Assessing the precise state of China’s internal politics reminds one of the remark about the difficulties of understanding the goings-on in the Politburo in Soviet times: it’s like a dozen men wrestling under a rug; clearly something’s happening, but it’s hard to say what.So, just as then, there are hawks and doves on China; those who believe that with encouragement and forbearance, the reformers will win ­ and others (many of them within the Pentagon) convinced that with the Chinese, as with the Soviet Union, any hint of moderation will be interpreted as weakness. But what everyone ­ hawks, doves, President Bush and the rest of us ­ needs above all is patience.China can never be, will never be, quite like us But nor is it engaged in ideological conflict with the West. With $115bn of annual trade with the US alone, it is far more part of the world economy than the old Soviet Union ever was Globalisation can only hasten the process. Our guess is that the present crisis is less the start of a new Cold War than a hiccough in the gradual, but inevitable, integration of China into the world system.. But for the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, it might have been possible for us to wake up, this morning, to Labour’s re-election ­ less than four years into their five-year term. But for the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, it might have been possible for us to wake up, this morning, to Labour’s re-election ­ less than four years into their five-year term.

Politics would have then slipped quietly into the background of public attention. Commentators would have poured over the entrails, speculated on the Cabinet reshuffle and the Tory leadership before packing their bags, with everyone else, for a long, long summer holiday.
So it is incredible that, with the general election probably nine weeks away, politics has shut down already. The term “phoney war” seems inadequate to describe the mood in Westminster as ministers, select committees and MPs with empty diaries seem to be contemplating nothing other than the unexpected bonus of a long Easter recess.As for the public, its appetite for political debate is small at the best of times. With a Labour victory still virtually assured and the prospect that the foot-and-mouth issue may be beginning to fade, it looks as though this general election will turn into the biggest yawn yet.Of course this is exactly what the Prime Minister wants, and who can blame him? With his decision to risk a short delay now looking likely to pay off, he has trapped his opponents into being frightened to escalate party political debate lest they fall foul of the public mood. By appearing to put the country first, Mr Blair may even end up being rewarded with a bigger victory than he expected in either April or May.