But he has suddenly leapt to prominence as a political phenomenon the most amazing thing to come out

But he has suddenly leapt to prominence as a political phenomenon, the most amazing thing to come out of Japan since Godzilla’s last romp across Tokyo.Words rarely heard in Japanese politics, such as “flamboyant”, “radical”, “maverick” and “revolutionary”, are being showered on him like confetti, and no one has been more startling in their assessment than Mr Koizumi. “It’s like pent-up magma that’s erupted,” he said of his surging support “It seems like the earth is shaking. I feel there are great changes afoot in political circles.” Either Junichiro Koizumi will be remembered as one of Japan’s greatest leaders, or as one of its biggest political charlatans So far his achievement has been remarkable. Last weekend local LDP members supported him overwhelmingly in preliminary elections. After the votes were added to those of the LDP MPs yesterday, the majority was stunning: 293 votes to 155 for his closest rival, Ryutaro Hashimoto. Greater surprises came in the evening, when Mr Koizumi held his first press conference as party leader. Even before being formally elected (the LDP-dominated parliament votes him in as PM tomorrow) he set out his agenda as an aggressive economic reformer and a proud, uncompromising nationalist.

He announced his intention of doing what no leader has seriously attempted, to revise their “peace constitution” to allow Japan to maintain armed forces. The 240,000 Japanese military personnel are euphemistically called the “Self-Defence Forces” in deference to an article of the constitution that renounces military force.Mr Koizumi also said he would visit Yasukuni shrine, the Shinto site that honours Japan’s war dead, on 15 August, the anniversary of Japan’s surrender. “The present prosperity of Japan is based on the sacrifice of those who died in war,” he said. “It is a matter of course for me to pay my respects.” Those enshrined at Yasukuni include executed war criminals; the left regards it as a symbol of wartime totalitarianism, and no prime minister has visited on the anniversary since 1985. The remarks provoked an immediate rebuke from a Chinese government ever-vigilant for signs of resurgent Japanese militarism. More startling, and more direct in the effect they will have on Japanese people, are their new leader’s plans for the economy.

Japanese regard their greatest postwar achievement as the “economic miracle”, the transformation of a defeated and broken country into the world’s second-richest one. For 10 years, they have stumbled along the brink of a recession, unable to acknowledge that things have gone wrong Until yesterday, when Mr Koizumi told them He is promising harsh medicine. Public spending will be cut to reduce Japan’s vast government debt. The banks will be made to write off their many outstanding bad loans, forcing out of business the many companies unable to repay them. For a Japanese politician even to utter the word “recession” is remarkable; for him to surge to power on a wave of popular enthusiasm is unprecedented. Under the outgoing prime minister, the inept Yoshiro Mori, the LDP system of rotating the top job was the nadir of pass-the-parcel.

Mr Koizumi is unique in rejecting the LDP’s factional politics and its economic half-measures and to express the nationalist sentiments many Japanese share but are wary of voicing But so far all he has done is talk. Despite his avowals of independence, from the size of his victory he must have cut shrewd deals with the MPs who supported him The first test will be the announcement of his new cabinet. He has promised to make appointments on merit, and to include younger ministers and more women. But an average age of 60 would be a younger cabinet; to increase the number of women, he would have to appoint only three. The next few weeks will show whether there really is a volcano erupting in Japan, or whether Mr Koizumi’s fiery magma is only hot air.. To the rest of the world, apart from the handful of sailors and fighter pilots who defend them, the islands known as the Spratlys are nothing more than a scattering of dots on a map. The combined surface area of the 230 islets, rocks, reefs and atolls scattered across the centre of the South China Sea is only three square miles.