A postponement into the remote future of European monetary union would not be wholly unwelcome in some quarters if it led

A postponement into the remote future of European monetary union would not be wholly unwelcome in some quarters if it led to an easing of economic policy.Is Japan over the hill?The plot: Japan was the wonder of the post-war world as it struggled up from the ashes of its firebombed cities. By the 1980s it was tipped to become America’s successor as world-bestriding economic giant. Foreign experts flocked to discover the secrets of Japanese success, and apply them back home.In 1991, inflated property and share prices collapsed; so did the splurge in lending and investment that these had prompted. The economy plunged into recession.Four years later, the economy is still at a standstill. Keeping those promises would require a radically different economic policy. The plan arose from the need to cut public spending and increase government revenues to get France’s finances into shape to meet the criteria for European Economic and Monetary Union.But the major domestic problem remains unemployment, at around 11.5 per cent, and although schemes have been put forward to tackle it, such as tax-free zones in deprived areas, it remains stubbornly high, exacerbated by high payroll taxes.The characters: President Jacques Chirac has begun to regain some of his popularity, thanks in part to his national address on the night of the death of Francois Mitterrand.

Juppe’s popularity has also started to rise again, though dissident voices are heard in the ruling coalition, and the utterances of Philippe Seguin, speaker of the National Assembly and a potential premier, are closely scrutinised.Prospects: Chirac’s election owed much to his promises to cut unemployment and heal social divisions. New management policies are being introduced to elicit more efficiency from its bloated bureaucracy. Negotiations have also begun on a new template for member states’ contributions, which in particular should cut the amount the US will have to pay.Can France recover from civil unrest?The plot: France entered 1996 still shaken by the public-sector strikes of November and December, which forced the prime minister, Alain Juppe, to amend drastically his plan to reform the social security system. A radical reduction in peace-keeping activities has already began with the withdrawal from Bosnia. “The UN blew its top yesterday,” quipped a spokeswoman, referring to the organisation’s financial crisis. Another interpretation might have been, “UN falls apart”.Because of the failure of the US in particular to pay its dues, the UN is currently owed $2.3bn and is effectively bankrupt. Travel by its officials has been frozen and all recruiting put on hold.Antagonism towards the UN inside Congress is at a historic high.

In the US especially, the UN is regarded as having been primarily culpable in the debacle in Bosnia. Its peace-keepers were supplanted by Nato troops before Christmas and the organisation’s role in the current peace-keeping effort had been deliberately kept to a minimum.Prospects: all of this is combining to force the UN to undertake in-house reform on many fronts. There are half a dozen potential flashpoints in the Caucasus, and others further afield.Above all, however, the continued use of Russian firepower against civilian targets, and the nationalist tone of the politicians inside and outside the Kremlin, serves as a reminder that Moscow still believes in the old- fashioned dictum that large states may do what they like, while smaller nations must be subservient.Is the UN in terminal crisis or can it rebuild its influence?The plot: the UN General Assembly lost a large part of its roof to a windstorm last week and much symbolism has been read into the accident. For the next three years there was a stand-off between the two sides, but in December 1994 Russian troops moved in to crush Chechen independence once and for all.